Jason Heyward and Expectations - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

Jason Heyward and Expectations Stuck

Posted on November 28, 2012 at 09:08 AM.

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Maybe it is just another characteristic of our instant answer society. Maybe we no longer have the patience to wait. But, there is something in our society that makes us continually get excited about something and then just as quickly move on to the next great thing. Technology changes and evolves. Suddenly, that phone we just bought a few months ago seems outdated compared to the newer, exciting model.

That attitude has long been prevalent in the way we consume sports. We have a certain affinity for �the next one�. Every prospect in the Minor Leagues is the next potential superstar or the player who would make the Major League team infinitely better right away. We get carried away with the possibilities.

At the beginning, anything is possible. A player really could be the next Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays. We conveniently forget that both of the legends struggled at the beginning of their careers before realizing their potential and becoming superstars. We want to believe that the prospects can become instant stars. Some actually do. Stephen Strasburg has dominated since he first step foot on a Major League mound.

The reality is that most take some time. Mike Trout looked a bit overmatched in 2011 before making 2012 a season that few will forget. Bryce Harper�s remarkable rookie season is actually the outlier in terms of age 19 seasons. Most players--even the likes of Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. actually take a couple of seasons before really hitting stride as a Major Leaguer.

But, it certainly is easy to forget.

Outside of Atlanta, most have forgotten how special of a player Jason Heyward is. He was supposed to be Bryce Harper and Mike Trout a couple of seasons ago. His Manager, Bobby Cox, made comparisons to Hank Aaron before Heyward played an official Major League game. Like all other talented rookies, the possibilities of Jason Heyward were endless. At 20 years old, Heyward was saddled with expectations that were far too unrealistic.

His rookie season was quite good as he played in 142 games under Bobby Cox. He hit .277/.393/.456 with 29 doubles, 5 triples, 18 home runs, 72 RBI, and 11 stolen bases. Griffey hit .300/.366/.481 as a 20 year old, but it was also his second season. Alex Rodriguez had his breakout season as a 20 year old, but it was already his third season as a Major Leaguer. While Heyward didn�t dominate, he certainly laid the foundation of a very good career. He was a 5 WAR player and finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting.

Expectations were certainly high heading into 2011, but Heyward would suffer a shoulder injury that would limit him for most of the season. He struggled at the plate once he came back from injury. He was even criticized by Chipper Jones for not coming back and playing hurt. It was obvious that he was hurt, even when he did come back. Even more bizarre, Heyward found himself on the bench quite often at the end of the season because Manager Fredi Gonzalez chose to play Jose Constanza. Heyward finished at just .227/.319/.389 in 128 games. At 21 years old, he was already at somewhat of a crossroads.

He entered last season as a question mark. The once Hank Aaron-like player was now an afterthought. How quickly we forget. And, being as 2012 turned into the season of Trout and Harper, Heyward�s rebound year was ignored. He played in 158 games this year and hit .269/.335/.479 with 30 doubles, 6 triples, 27 home runs, 82 RBI, and 21 stolen bases. Add in the fact that he is already the best defensive right fielder in the sport and his 2012 season is exactly the type of year that many foresaw in 2010. He produced offensively, ran the bases well, and played elite defense. A 6.6 WAR player, Heyward was one of the most valuable players in all of baseball.

His defense is the part of his game that largely gets ignored. It shouldn�t as he is an elite defender. According to UZR, he is the best in Major League Baseball. Last year, he posted a UZR of 22.9, besting second place Josh Reddick by almost 5.5 points and third place Ichiro Suzuki by 10. According to Defensive Runs Saved, Heyward was second with 20 runs saved, just two behind Reddick and a full five behind third place Torii Hunter. We like to say that we love players who play every facet of the game, but defense is usually the last part of any conversation. Heyward is an elite defender by just about every metric.

While we�ve all moved on to Harper and Trout (and most likely to finding the next Harper and Trout), it is easy to forget that Jason Heyward is just 23 years old and still one of the most exciting players in the sport. There is more to come. Actually, there is much more to come. He was given all of those expectations and when he failed to instantly deliver, the focus shifted to the next guy. Maybe that is for best. Now, he can simply play, continue to improve, and hit his prime in four years.

Isn�t that last part absurd? He won�t hit his prime for another three to four years.

2013 should be another step for Heyward. He walked at a 14.6 percent rate his rookie year, but that has decreased in the past two years to 8.9 percent. An uptick can be expected. As he learns the strike zone better and adjusts to how the league is pitching him, his strikeout rate will also decrease. Power will continue to develop. Perhaps 2013 will see modest improvement, something in the line of .275/.345/.490 with another 30 doubles, 5 triples, and 30 home runs. That modest improvement is actually an elite season once his defense is factored in.

There isn�t the same attention anymore. The spotlight has shifted elsewhere. But, the Atlanta Braves have one of the best, young players in the sport on their roster who will only continue to improve. He isn�t the latest great prospect and he didn�t become an instant star. But, he is on his way, even if it isn�t on our schedule.

Gary Armida is a staff writer for Operation Sports and also operations fullcountpitch.com. Join him here, there, and even on Twitter, @garyarmida

Comments

# 1 Stikskillz @ Nov 29

Good write up! As a Giants fan, I witnessed Heyward's talent when he hit two HR's in the same game out of AT&T in 2010. One HR was a line drive down the left field line. I was in complete shock because you just don't see lefty's go oppo like that, especially in AT&T park. Dare I say it was Bondsesque. Heyward is flying low on the radar right now, which is probably a good thing for him, but he won't be low on the radar for too long.